Despite back to back promotions Southampton’s Nigel Adkins
is the 7/4 favourite to be out of a job before anyone else! Incredibly harsh,
yes; however the relatively new chairman Nicola Cortese isn’t the most popular
with the St Mary’s faithful and dismissing the likeable Adkins would go someway
to ensure that popularity nosedives further!
Successive promotions won't save you from the sack!
Andre Villas-Boas has only been at the club five minutes;
however he is joint second favourite in the sack race following an indifferent
start to Tottenham’s Premier League campaign. It won’t happen overnight and
hopefully Daniel Levy will give the former Chelsea manager time, and despite
picking up just five points from four games, the players appear to be on side
and have frequently defended Villas-Boas.
Along with Villas-Boas at 7/1 is QPR’s Mark Hughes. A very
good transfer window for the club has ensured that expectations at Loftus Road
will be high; however a start that has included the away trips to Manchester
City and Spurs, as well as the recent visit from the European Champions, is far
from ideal, and come the half-way stage QPR will be in and around the middle of
the Barclays Premier League, and Hughes will still be a job.
Both Brendan Rodgers and Sam Allardyce are at 10’s and for
me neither will be the first out of a job as one is there for the long-term
whilst the other will keep his side away from trouble!
For me the two who I’ve yet to mention who are at long odds
but are very much in the ‘sack-race’ are Roberto Di Matteo and Alan Pardew who
are 25/1 and 33/1 respectively. Two words sum up why these two are even
considered and they are ‘Crazy Owners'! Both Roman Abramovich and Mike Ashley
have previous when it comes to dismissing managers, and as crazy as it sounds,
if either Di Matteo or Pardew were sacked, it wouldn’t surprise me. Very little
in football does nowadays.
Ashley stunned the football world when he sacked Chris Hughton in 2010
Newcastle at times were superb last year and surprised many as they finished 5th in the Barclays Premier League. Alan Pardew defied his critics and despite the sales of previous key figures in Jose Enrique, Kevin Nolan and Joey Barton were well worth their high finish. Pardew has added in Ajax's Vurnon Anita and Gael Bigirimana from Coventry.
Papiss Cisse, an arrival from German side Freiburg in January, took the Premier League by storm as he completed an all Senegalese strike force with Demba Ba. Cisse scored an incredible array of goals, many worthy of challenging for the goal of the season crown, with his strike away to Chelsea in a 2-0 victory winning the said trophy. Whether Cisse can continue his form from last season is up in the air; however if his strike rate is half as impressive as his first 14 games, then he'll certainly be challenging for the top goalscorer.
For once Newcastle haven't sold during a Summer transfer window, keeping their midfield duo of Check Tiote and Yohann Cabaye despite rumoured interest from some of Europe's finest clubs. Their midfield ranks with the best in the Premier League; however they don't have as much depth as those who finished above them, meaning any injuries will hit Pardew's side hard.
Club captain Fabricio Coloccini was immense at the heart of Newcastle's defence, earning a place in the PFA Team of the year. The Argentine had many doubters following the clubs relegation in 2009, and despite interest from abroad stayed with the club during their season in the Championship, making him a fans favourite in the progress. With Steven Taylor's return to full fitness, Newcastle again have a solid partnership at the back.
Key player - Hatem Ben Arfa. Ben Arfa towards the back end of the season was one of the Premier League's best players, and with injury cutting short his previous two campaigns, this season is a big one for Ben Arfa. At times his attitude is questionable, having fall outs at both of his former clubs leading to his exit; however if he reaches his undoubted potential then Newcastle will do very well to keep him.
Prediction - 6th. I think Newcastle will just be short in their pursuit of a top four finish; however under Pardew the club have improved immensely and will finish in a Europa League spot.
View from a fan - Scott Anthony Carr
What would be an ideal season?
A perfect season would be finishing fourth as well as a decent run in the Europa League
What would be a nightmare year?
My nightmare year would be finishing in the bottom half of the league because all of the momentum would be lost.
Do you have the right manager in charge?
I like Pardew, I was skeptical and annoyed when they first put him in charge because I thought Chris Hughton did a good job but he's been doing the business and with the set up of the club we need a manager who is happy not to have all the power such as a Ferguson or Moyes, with transfers etc, which he seems happy to do.
Which Premier League player would you sign given the chance?
Realistically I'd like us to sign Michael Dawson after his move to QPR has hit the rocks. He's a great centre back and Steven Taylor has his injury problems and is shaky at times.
Can Papiss Cisse really keep up the form he shew in the back end of last season?
I think he'll still be a regular scorer, just not as frequent as last season. I still reckon he'll get 15+ goals for the season.
Is this Ben Arfa's big season?
Ben Arfa showed in the back end of last year what a quality player he is, and I think now he's in the side and the fans and the manager realise how much ability he has he's going to get more freedom and be a great player this season. I'm just worried one of the big club will come in for him!
I didn't for a second think they'd go down but at the start of the season I did feel that Newcastle would be in the lower regions of the Barclays Premier League this year.
My reasons for this were as follows:
The loss of key players
Alan Pardew and Newcastle United lost not one but four of their best players during the two previous transfer windows in Andy Carroll, Jose Enrique, Kevin Nolan and Joey Barton. These four players didn't just help Newcastle regain their top flight status but they ensured that the club were more of a threat to the top 10 then the bottom three.
Alan Pardew's lack of transfer budget
The £35million sale of Carroll hasn't been used to enhance Pardew's transfer budget with the relatively cheap additions of Yohan Cabaye and Gabriel Obertan the highlight of an otherwise low key transfer window for Newcastle United.
Small squad
Their recent 4-2 defeat away to Norwich City exposed how thin of a squad Newcastle have. A back four of Ryan Taylor, Danny Simpson, James Perch and Davide Santon only highlighted how vital Fabricio Coloccini and Steven Taylor are to Newcastle. Their first XI are very good, but I felt if Pardew had to rotate the squad for any reason, the club would suffer; however I was wrong as the likes of Danny Guthrie and Ryan Taylor when called apon this season have been brilliant.
Despite my pre-season expectations of Newcastle United they have not only exceeded them, but probably their own too. The Geordie side currently find themselves 6th in the Barclays Premier League, a point clear of Liverpool following their 1-0 victory over QPR on Sunday, and a Europa League finish is now a distinct possibility.
Newcastle have learnt massively from their brief spell in the Championship and despite the addition of talented forward players, they have built from the back this season conceding just 25 goals in their 21 Premier League matches. Club Captain Coloccini has been one of the players of the season, and after opting against leaving the club two years ago, he has been in the form of his life. Prior to his arrival at Newcastle, the Argentine international had played for seven different clubs in a period of just 10 years; however he finally appears to have settled in the North of England, much to Newcastle's gain. The curly-haired defender's form is sure to have alerted Alejandro Sabella, as Argentina look to re-structure a defence that was so horribly exposed at the recent Copa America. Coloccini hasn't been the only excellent defender at the club this year; the whole back four have performed at a consistently good standard, and until the recent 3-0 home defeat to Chelsea, Pardew hadn't made a change to their defence in 14 Premier League matches.
Another key member of the Newcastle back five has been the goalkeeper Tim Krul, who despite his tender age for a shot stopper has been in incredible form. During a season you can usually lay blame with the keeper for on average three goals a season; however Krul for me is yet to have been at fault for a single goal, admittedly we are only just past the half way stage in the season, but that's still an impressive feat. As a goalkeeper for me Krul has the lot: he's excellent shot stopper, good in the air and appears to communicate well with his defence, and with man of the match displays a common occurance this season, Krul's form doesn't appear to be a temporary thing. Krul's fantastic season hasn't gone unnoticed and with rumoured interest from Spurs, Pardew will hope his Dutch number one won't be joining the recent exodus at the club.
Newcastle on the road this season have been impressive, with their only three defeats coming at Manchester City, Liverpool and Norwich, with the latter down to their lengthy injury list. A reason for why they've been successful away from home this year is because of their excellent team work with another Argentine Jonas Gutierrez a perfect example of the commitment and heavy workload put in. Gary Neville perfectly highlighted the tracking back Gutierrez did following their recent 3-1 success away to Stoke, as the winger helped an out of position Ryan Taylor deal with the threat of Jermaine Pennant. Gutierrez isn't alone in his tremendous commitment with the summer signing Cabaye another who you wouldn't suspect to be a hard worker off the ball, putting in a fantastic shift during the same game.
The loss of Nolan and Barton left a huge hole in the middle of the field; however Pardew was quick to address this with the £6million addition of Cabaye. The Frenchman and Check Tiote work beautifully together and despite both suffering little knocks this season, they both are instrumental in any Newcastle success. The duo's passing success rate is the highest in the club, with Cabaye (up to the 9th December) averaging a brilliant 80%. Danny Guthrie has come in to replace Tiote frequently this season when the Ivorian has been injured, and with the Ivory Coast international off to the African Cup of Nations, the former Liverpool man will have to step up to the plate to replace the hugely popular Tiote.
If my pre-season expectations of Newcastle were wrong, then my prediction that Ba would flop in English football were incredibly wide of the mark. When the Senegalese international first joined West Ham, before he played a game I had written him off as another poor Hammers foreign import; however seven goals in just twelve Premier League matches for a relegated side proved he could cut it in the Barclays Premier League. If his first six months in English football were good, then his second were fantastic. 15 goals in just 19 games means only Robin Van Persie is above him in the Premier League goal scorers list and with two hat-tricks to boot, Ba has been the bargain of the season. Ba has not only showing an eye for a goal, but his movement and ability to find space in the box is up there with the best in the league. As you will see in the video below, Ba always manages to pull clear of the last defender in the penalty area, giving himself space to get a tap-in. The boy doesn't only score tap-ins; he is fantastic in the air; has a great first touch and can score a set-piece. With Ba now off to the African Cup of Nations, Newcastle face a tough few fixtures ahead of them as for me Best and Ameobi aren't in his league. With rumours circulating about a possible release clause in his contract, it wouldn't surprise me to see a really big side take a punt on the injury-prone forward as after seeing him, I believe he has everything a top class striker needs.
The gaffer Alan Pardew deserves a lot of credit too. The former West Ham manager was unfairly sacked in his last three managerial jobs and his last stint in English football was in League One with Southampton, so he wasn't the fans number one choice to replace the popular Chris Hughton during last season; however he has proved many people wrong, including myself. From the outside looking in Pardew appears to have great man management ability and despite Hatem Ben Arfa's recent comments about the long ball football at Newcastle, for me they have played some attractive stuff this season, only using the long ball when appropriate or a set tactic, with the Manchester United game a perfect example of this. Pardew has had a relatively small budget available to him, despite the massive income of transfer fee's from the recent sale of big players, but the big two additions in Cabaye and the injury prone risky move of Ba have proved fantastic deals. At this stage of the season there are four managers who are up for the manager of the year award: Paul Lambert at Norwich; Brendan Rodgers at Swansea; Harry Redknapp at Tottenham and Pardew, and for me Pardew gets it everytime.
The real question is can Newcastle maintain their brilliant start and I believe they can! If they can get through a difficult January, due to the African Cup of Nations taking Ba and Tiote away for a month and possibly add players then I honestly don't see why they can't finish seventh, which when you consider those who are above them and what they've spend and the squad depth available to them, then it would be an incredible achievement.
